The Leafs get rewarded for their most complete effort on the season. Some thoughts on playing with the lead, modern 4th line construction, and all the usual statistical goodies below:
The concept of “clear victories” popped up on the old Oilers blog The Copper and Blue years ago. It’s simple: a clear victory (or a clear defeat) comes when you beat the opponent by at least two non-empty net goals.
The idea is that when you beat a team by just a goal, you could have won because of any number of reasons. A bad bounce or three can tip the scales in a close game much more than it can one that isn’t so close.
The Leafs had a fantastic effort in Winnipeg and were rewarded with their first clear victory of the season. The first five games were all decided by a goal, with the winning goal coming late except for the game against Washington. Even still, while two-goal leads have been blown all around the NHL this season (with the Bruins, Kings, Blue Jackets, and Hurricanes all adding to the total Saturday night) the Leafs were one of a handful of just two teams to not even OWN a two-goal lead going into Saturday (the Minnesota Wild somehow, have not held one all year yet). John Tavares’ powerplay goal to put them up 3-1 put the Leafs into uncharted territory.
Hockey takes on a different complexion when a team is trailing in the third period. The concept of “score effects” is understood, but the actual effects are misinterpreted. It isn’t really until the third period that a trailing team starts pressing, and it happens pretty gradually. Even so, the incentives for both teams change: the Leafs are successful if the can kill 30-40 seconds at a time where nothing happens, not necessarily if they score. Long stretches of uninterrupted, boring play are the hope.
The Leafs were out-shot 17-14 in the third period at 5v5, by my count. Was it much of a problem? No. This was a pretty drama-free third period, with the exception of an Ilya Samsonov (who was very good again) puck-handling adventure, I can’t really think of any good chances the Jets had (I did have them listed for 8 at 5v5).
Lastly, let’s talk about the new-look 4th line. Leafs games against the Jets have frequently degraded into barbarism, and even though players like Simmonds and Clifford are liable to instigate some mess over the course of play, that’s not exactly why they’re there. They’re there because if things get messy, you want a group of players you can reliably send over the boards that can handle themselves and are also a bit more “expendable” for the overall good of the organization. This is something I gained to appreciate a little more over my time in the Leafs front office: things could have gotten kind of crazy after Josh Morrissey’s hit on Nick Robertson (for the record, I thought it was clean), but there was a penalty called on the play, and Sheldon Keefe was able to send Clifford and Simmonds over the boards immediately after, not for revenge, not to send a message, but so that a player like William Nylander or Mitch Marner or Alex Kerfoot isn’t suddenly caught when the Jets send out their tough guys for the ensuing faceoff, intent on turning the game into a street fight. That HAS happened, especially with the Jets owning last change.
The Jets don’t really have a classic tough guy on their roster, but they do have Logan Stanley, Brenden Dillon, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Neal Pionk, four guys that had prominent roles during that wild game last December that resulted in 62 combined penalty minutes and two suspensions.
At the end of the day, it’s an 82-game season, and I’ve kind of accepted that you can’t dress your ideal lineup every game. Would the Leafs lose a few more games with Simmonds and Clifford on the 4th line than they would if Engvall and Malgin were dressed? Over 82 games, absolutely. But in certain games? Well, there’s some nuance. And, hey, the maligned 4th line created the winning goal.
5v5 Shots and scoring chances
Despite holding a lead for much of the game, particularly the third, the Leafs still managed to out-shoot Winnipeg, thanks to a dominant first period. The scoring chances were also pretty clearly in Toronto’s favour.
During the broadcast, it was mentioned that Rick Bowness expects his defence to score “40 or 45” goals this season. That’s a hell of an ask, and probably a little counterproductive. One thing the Leafs D do in the offensive zone is get the puck to their forwards, who are generally better shooters. The Jets took a lot of perimeter shots in this one, accounting for about half the shots they had in total. That resulted in three extra scoring chances. Getting the D going for the sake of getting the D going is likely to harm your team in the long run, since it takes shots away from your forwards.
Let’s see how each team created their shots:
After being stymied by the Stars, the Leafs generated quite a bit off the rush in this one. We’ll see it a bit later, but the Leafs took advantage of a lot more open space than there was in the game against the Stars.
Individual numbers:
Toronto:
- This was a big game for Matthews. He had 5 scoring chances at 5v5, and also had 5 attempts that would have been scoring chances either broken up or fanned on. Auston got himself open, he got himself into dangerous spots, and Marner found him, three times, but Auston couldn’t bury. This line looked great in the offensive zone and aren’t converting right now. There is no player in the league I’m less concerned about than Auston Matthews. He has had extended slumps through his career. Last season, he scored a single goal in October, but won the goal-scoring title with a cushion you’d find in first class on a Trans-Atlantic flight. While he’s not been great on entries, he’s looked great in the OZ. The pucks will fall.
- Another big night for Nylander and Tavares in the OZ, though less good for Robertson. He was much less noticeable in this game. While he has a great shot, I think he’s a player who struggles to create his own shots at times. While Nylander and Tavares have the ability to push defenders back on entry and have the knowledge on how to create space in the OZ, Robertson either doesn’t have that ability or experience, and will probably rely on setup passes. That’s fine, he just turned 21 and you don’t typically get complete players at that age unless they were taken at the very top of the draft.
- I’ve been critical of the Leafs fourth line this season, with Aston-Reese and Aube-Kubel not really doing a whole lot on Kampf’s wing. This was somehow Kampf’s best game of the season, when taken away from those guys and placed with two guys mostly tasked with keeping Rasmus Sandin and Nick Robertson safe.
Winnipeg:
- Winnipeg didn’t really have a whole lot going for them, except for Pierre-Luc Dubois, who scored the Jets lone goal and had a massive night. However, the Jets weren’t really able to get him the puck. Just two of his five scoring chances were set up by a teammate, and the Leafs were able to get a stick in the way to partially disrupt him on two of them. He was creating his own shots but was kind of alone out there.
Zone entries
Controlled entries:
The Leafs won the entry attempt battle, 86-77 and even in the 3rd period, when the Jets ought to have been pressing, the attempts were even (31 for WPG, 30 for TOR). The Leafs were also more efficient with their entries, controlling the puck on 42% versus 32% for the Jets, and created nearly twice as many scoring chances as a result of their entries. As shown above, they were pretty dangerous off the rush in this one.
Dump-ins:
Both teams retrieved a fair number of shoot-ins, with the Leafs able to generate a few more chances off their forecheck than the Jets were, despite the Jets recovering a few more pucks. Still, the game wasn’t determined here.
In the third, the Jets recovered just 8 of 19 dump-ins (42%) after recovering 14 of 20 (70%) in the first two periods.
Kyle Clifford won 3 retrieval races to gain pucks for Toronto.
Individual entries:
Toronto:
- Here we see again just how strong the top line was, with the leading controlled entry-getter being Michael Bunting. He was 5-for-8 on entries, and his entries led to five scoring chances. The Leafs were also very efficient on Matthews’ 3 entries (all with control) and, in a battle of first lines, the Leafs entered 9 times with control on 17 attempts, creating 12 chances, while the Jets did so just 3 times on 11 attempts, for 2 chances. That was a big difference in the game, even if the first line didn’t score 5v5.
- Robertson did well on volume here, with a game-high 11 entries, although just 5 of them were with control (still a game-high, but less impressive on context). He was winning battles in the DZ and NZ throughout the game and looked pretty good hunting down the puck. Even if he never becomes a true shot creator, it’s good to see him hunt pucks and blast pucks. There’s a long future in the NHL for somebody like that.
Winnipeg:
- Nobody on the Jets really had a night that stands out. Even Dubois generated just 3 controlled entries. Their top line not really being able to generate anything is a key reason why the game went the way it did.
- Somehow, 5 defencemen from the Jets were recorded generating at least one controlled entry, for 10 total, yet Neal Pionk didn’t get any of them? That doesn’t seem right, but I’m not about to re-track this whole game to catch my mistake.
Entry defence
Toronto:
- After scoring the late winner on Hockey Night in Canada last Saturday, I think we can all agree that Holl had a pretty tough week. Here, he conceded the line 7 times, leading to 7 Winnipeg scoring chances. His partner, Sandin, shut Winnipeg down almost the entire night, not allowing a single scoring chance against in 7 targets.
- Giordano also had a rough game. There were a few moments in the game where I thought he looked very passive and didn’t gap up like he should. The closer you play to the net on the entry, the more speed the attacking player can generate when they attack the scoring area. Ideally, like a good defensive back in football, you want to be contacting attacking players early and slowing them down when they hit the line. Giordano had 35% corsi, worst on the Leafs.
Winnipeg:
- The Leafs really targeted Nate Schmidt, but he did a good job getting his stick on attackers early and forcing them to shoot from the outside. Despite allowing 11 controlled entries on 15 attempts, I thought he did the best job shutting down the Leafs rush. I recall him shutting down Tavares and Nylander in back-to-back shifts after they attacked the middle of the ice with speed. He wasn’t going to be beaten 1-on-1.
- Pionk, on the other hand, had a rough go. He conceded 8 controlled entries, which resulted in 10 scoring chances against the Jets. Surprisingly, per Natural Stat Trick, the Jets still managed 45% corsi when Pionk was on against the top line, who were responsible for a lot of those entries against.
Exits and DZ touches
Look at the difference a game makes. The Leafs were slow against Dallas, creating nothing off the rush, mainly because they exited the zone with control just 45% of the time, and their D doing so just 36% of the time. This game, the D was excellent, hitting the pass receivers in stride and with space and allowing the play to continue forward.
Mind you, the Jets D also had a very strong game in this regard. Overall, there was a lot of good flow in this game and less whack-puck in the neutral zone. Still, the Leafs forecheck was able to create some mess in the offensive zone, and forced the Jets into a lot of turnovers. Many Leafs forced multiple Jet turnovers, with Marner and Kampf (each with 4) leading the way.
Individual numbers:
Toronto:
- Marner had a good night among the forwards, but they overall weren’t very active in getting the puck out, not as much as the D were. There seemed to be more of a concerted effort to bump the puck back to the D, who had a bit more space to work with since the Jets weren’t really forechecking aggressively after the first wave.
- All of Rielly, Brodie, Sandin, and Holl had excellent games exiting the DZ with control, with 4 or more controlled exits. Almost as good, they all kept the turnover numbers down (except for Rielly).
Winnipeg:
- Schmidt may have had a good game off the puck, but… yeesh. No wonder he and Dillon were the worst pairing for the Jets in terms of corsi (32% and 36%, respectively). Schmidt made 7 turnovers on 19 DZ touches and neither player exited the DZ with control well; both of them were 2-for-6.
- Great night for Morrissey and Pionk, however, combining for 13 controlled exits on 14 attempts, although Morrissey also had 4 turnovers.
Thank you for reading. I hope you found something informative in here. I’m not a huge fan of website comments, so if you have suggestions, notes on what you liked or didn’t like, kindly get at me on Twitter @camcharronyvr, or send me an email camcharron@gmail.com.
These postgame reports will be free through the month of October. If you enjoyed the content, please consider buying a site subscription when the option becomes available.
Cam Charron's Hockey Stats 