I forgot to write an intro when I wrote this recap, so I’m doing it now.
So far this season, the Leafs have yet to blow a game open, scoring 3 goals in each of their first 3 games. I think they are on the cusp of breaking out though: while Montreal has historically found a way to handle Matthews and Marner, that wasn’t true of Washington Thursday night and it wasn’t true of Ottawa Saturday night. The Leafs top line imposed their will on the Sens and had them chasing nearly the entire game.
This game was nominally close, decided on a Justin Holl goal with 1:55 remaining in regulation. However, the data I collected during the game paints a different picture, one that shows the Maple Leafs simply outclassed the Senators. On to the tables:
5v5 Team Stats
Zone entries
Once again, the first place we look is entry differential. We see that the Leafs held a 95-75 advantage in that regard. Both teams entered the zone fairly efficiently, a 45% controlled entry percentage for the Leafs to 44% for Ottawa.
However we see a large gap in percentage of shoot-ins recovered. The Leafs recovered 21 of their 42 dump-ins, and did a great job holding the Sens to 13 of 35. Combined with entry differential, that’s a difference of 64 offensive possessions for the Leafs gained through zone entries, to just 46 for Ottawa. That may not be apparent over the course of a game, but it definitely adds up over a season.
We’ll get into why the Leafs had such a wide advantage in the Exits and DZ touches section.
Shots and scoring chances
The Leafs controlled the zone time here, with 64 attempted shots to the Sens 46. The Leafs also attempted 40 shots that would have qualified as scoring chances to the Sens 29.
Exits and DZ touches
Here was can see why the Leafs held such an advantage: they managed the puck much, much better, with just 4 DZ turnovers from defencemen (and 10 total) while the Sens had 32 DZ turnovers on the night.
Despite the fact that the Leafs D struggled to exit the DZ with control, they still held a controlled exit to turnover ratio of above 3.0, while the Sens were way below 1.0. Those numbers have really become my baseline for “good” and “bad”, respectively.
Both teams forwards did a good job of exiting with speed, though again, the Sens forwards turned the puck over in the DZ quite a bit more often than the Leafs did.
Onto the individual numbers.
5v5 Individual Stats
Zone entries
Toronto:
- Game 1 against Montreal had Engvall breaking out and having a big puck possession night. Game 3 against Ottawa featured Alex Kerfoot, who was a force throughout the night. His line was 2nd to the Matthews line in corsi Saturday night.
- We also finally had a breakout game from Matthews, who had been a little quiet in the first two games, at least in this aspect of the game. He probably had his strongest two-way game of the season.
- I don’t report these numbers in this post… yet, but I had Matthews forcing 4 Ottawa turnovers, tied for a team-high.
- Another big night for Tavares as well. I will be compiling the numbers at some point, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he were leading the team in both entry rate and controlled entry percentage. He looks a lot faster so far this season, and that night was able to be positive in corsi despite the fact that Malgin wasn’t very noticeable again.
- I mentioned that Matthews 4 turnovers forced was tied for a team-high. He was tied with Tavares.
- The 4th line know their role. They entered with control 1-for-10, with Aube-Kubel failing to get the puck deep 4 times. That said, when the group were able to get it deep, they recovered 4-of-5 dump-ins.
Ottawa:
- Stutzle and Batherson can do some shifty things in the offensive zone, but I don’t see either player as a gamebreaker just yet. This line was all right, but were pretty close to even in corsi.
- The Norris line was Ottawa’s strongest, with Norris and Giroux each having good nights. DeBrincat didn’t enter the zone very often, but he was Ottawa’s best player at recovering pucks, winning a game-high 3 puck retrieval races on dump-ins. The problem is, I see DeBrincat as more of a finisher and less of a puck-hound. I’m not completely sold that these three players complement each other well.
- The Pinto line has been beaten in both Ottawa’s games (they were out-shot 19-5, per Natural Stat Trick, in Saturday’s contest). The entry numbers are pretty good for them here, though, with Motte having a high volume night and Pinto having a very solid 4-for-6 night. Their issue likely stems from how the D are playing behind them. Pinto didn’t look like a 21% corsi player to me.
Zone entry defence
Toronto:
- Pretty decent night for all the Leafs here but Muzzin. No single player was the cause of Muzzin’s troubles, but it should be noted that 5 of the 7 controlled entries that Muzzin gave up came in the first period, so he at least improved throughout the game.
Ottawa:
- I don’t know if Chabot even saw the bench after Zaitsev went down. He was targeted 17 times, with the Leafs entering with control against him 10 times. Chabot was pretty good against the Matthews line, with those three players going 4-for-7 against him.
- Zub on the other hand had a very difficult night, allowing 9 controlled entries on 10 targets, and getting worked by centremen in general. He allowed multiple controlled entries to each of Matthews, Tavares, and Kerfoot.
Shots and scoring chances
Toronto:
- Bunting was the beneficiary of Matthews’ strong night controlling play. He took 9 shots, 8 of which qualified as scoring chances, per my count, including one right in tight on Forsberg that resulted in Holl’s rebound goal. I suspect that the Leafs would rather have Matthews or Marner take those chances, but they seemed all right setting him up.
- Other than his goal, Holl activated a few times in the OZ and had some good looks. He had 3 scoring chances, most among D for either team.
Ottawa:
- Despite how good Pinto looked in the NZ, he clearly wasn’t able to turn that into much offence, as his line combined for just 4 shots, with just 1 of them set-up by a teammate.
- The lack of pre-shot movement was a theme for the Sens in this one, in fact. They had 9 scoring chances that were preceded by a setup pass, while the Leafs had 16. I don’t count total OZ passes, but that’s an indication that the puck was moving a fair bit more in the Sens’ zone than the Leafs’ one.
Exits and DZ touches
Toronto:
- The Big 4 all had strong nights exiting the DZ, each getting 4 controlled exits.
- Again, the lack of turnovers was the big story for the Leafs tonight. Neither Holl, Giordano, nor Sandin turned the puck over in the DZ, per my count. That could be a theme for the next couple of weeks: I’m looking at the schedule and I don’t see any notably strong forechecking teams coming up.
Ottawa:
- One of the reasons the Sens were happy to go into the season with this defensive group was their belief that Sanderson would pop right away. While he wasn’t their problem last night, it’s clear he still has a ways to go, but at least he handled quite a bit of volume and acquitted himself reasonably well, leading the D in controlled exits.
- DeBrincat’s speed may not have been seen in the NZ, but he had a great night in the defensive zone, exiting with control 6 times on 6 attempts. Unfortunately, he did commit 3 turnovers, most among forwards.
- Brannstrom had a very tough night back there. He some had 48% corsi despite the puck not being where it was supposed to be after he handled it, which should be on teammates’s sticks.
- That said, he was out-shot 15-16, and 6-0 of that was against the Toronto 4th line, who didn’t really try to get anything done on offence. He was absolutely torched by the Matthews line (1-8). Marner forced 2 turnovers, both against Brannstrom.
Another thing I’m not really able to get into with single-game tracking data: Ilya Samsonov had another pretty good night. There are other places to read about the problem the Leafs have with Matt Murray’s injury (and the fact they went into the season with 3 healthy goalies).
The good news for Samsonov is that, contrary to popular belief, Toronto is a relatively easy environment. The defence is strong and you get lots of goal support: the Leafs were 8-4-1 in Erik Kallgren’s games last season, despite him posting a meagre 88.8% Sv%.
As fun as goalies are, all the Leafs can really control is what they do with the puck. After a brutal game in Montreal, the Leafs have responded with 2 solid efforts, with the Bunting-Matthews-Marner line looking great.
Thank you for reading. I hope you found something informative in here. I’m not a huge fan of website comments, so if you have suggestions, notes on what you liked or didn’t like, kindly get at me on Twitter @camcharronyvr, or send me an email camcharron@gmail.com.
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